UFC 317 Odds & Picks: Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira (2025)
The UFC's International Fight Week is here, and the promotion didn't disappoint with this weekend's loaded UFC 317 card. All roads lead to a championship tilt in the Lightweight Division between Ilia Topuria (No. 3) and Charles Oliveira (No. 2). They'll battle it out for the recently vacated strap, which was previously held by Islam Makhachev. Let's dive into each fighter's path to this contest, touch on their key metrics and wrap up with my best bet for the main event. Read on for our top UFC 317 picks and predictions.
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UFC 317 Picks: Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira Betting Guide
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Ilia Topuria (16-0-0)
Last Five Fights: W-W-W-W-W
Ilia Topuria ran through the Featherweight division and won two championship fights. It's now time for him to move up to 155 pounds and face new challenges. The Georgian-Spanish brawler is currently 16-0-0 in his professional MMA career, with his three recent wins coming against Josh Emmett (U-DEC), Alexander Volkanovski (TKO/KO - Punch) and Max Holloway (TKO/KO - Punch). The latter two were title fights at 145 pounds.
Topuria, who's a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, is one of the more well-rounded fighters we've seen in recent history. Of his 16 MMA wins, he has racked up eight submissions, six knockouts and two decision wins. Statistically, the 28-year-old is landing 4.69 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.84 strikes. He averages 2.02 successful takedowns per 15 minutes with a 61% success rate, while fending off an impressive 92% of opposing attempts.
Betting Profile: Charles Oliveira (35-10-0, 1 No Contest)
Last Five Fights: W-L-W-L-W
UFC legend Charles Oliveira needs no introduction. The 35-year-old has been locked in as a top-five fighter in the Lightweight Division for years, and he continues to pass almost every test he's faced. However, that wasn't the case two fights ago against Arman Tsarukyan in April 2024, when he lost a split-decision contest. Oliveira bounced back with a win over Michael Chandler (U-DEC) last time out in November 2024, moving him to 13-2 in his last 15 bouts.
Stylistically, "Do Bronxs" is a guy who can win by any method. Of his 35 professional wins, he has 21 submissions, 10 knockouts and only four decisions. The Brazilian brawler is landing 2.25 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 40% success rate. He's defending 56% of opposing attempts. On his feet, Oliveira is averaging 3.40 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.21 strikes per minute.
Bottom Line
This fight should be electric, but from a sports betting perspective, the market isn't too worried about 16-0-0 Ilia Topuria losing. The former Featherweight champ is a massive -470 Moneyline favorite, while the veteran Charles Oliveira comes back at +360 to get his hand raised.
I think there's insane value with Oliveira here on the Moneyline. He has continuously stepped up and taken down elite competitors at 155 pounds. His weakness may be his 56% takedown defense rate, but even then, he's always a threat to lock in a submission off his back. So at almost 4-1 odds, I'm going to sprinkle a few dollars on Oliveira to win this fight.
As for my best bet, I also believe there's value in betting on this fight to start the third round at +100. Both men are notorious for ending fights early, which is likely why we see a total of only 1.5 rounds (-145/+114) offered at DraftKings Sportsbook. With that said, I like how Oliveira's style stacks up against Topuria. He's great on his feet and has only been knocked out four times in 46 professional fights. You have to go back to 2017 to find his last knockout loss, and his only other finished defeat (SUB - Arm Triangle) came against the great Islam Makhachev in 2022.
As mentioned earlier, Oliveira is a threat off his back, and I anticipate him fending off any submission attempts early on. If Topuria takes him to the canvas, it should benefit us greatly, as this will melt the clock in non-dangerous positions. This fight will likely end before going to the judges' scorecards, but I think we'll get at least 10 minutes of action before we see a finish.
Bet: Fight to Start Round 3: Yes (+100)