UFC 317 Odds & Picks: Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano (2025)
This weekend's UFC 317 card from Las Vegas, Nevada, is loaded. One of the highly anticipated bouts on the main card is a clash between Beneil Dariush (No. 9) and Renato Moicano (No. 11) in the Lightweight Division. Below, I'll dive into each fighter's recent form, touch on their key statistics and trends and finish with my betting analysis on the 155-pound battle. Read on for our top UFC 317 picks and predictions.
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UFC 317 Picks: Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano Betting Guide
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Beneil Dariush (22-6-1)
Last Five Fights: L-L-W-W-W
America's Beneil Dariush was well on his way to becoming a force in the Lightweight Division until he got stonewalled by a couple of top-five fighters in the division. After an eight-fight win streak, with notable wins over Drew Dober (SUB - Armbar), Tony Ferguson (U-DEC) and Mateusz Gamrot (U-DEC), Dariush got knocked out in back-to-back contests against Charles Oliveira (KO/TKO -Punches) and Arman Tsarukyan (KO/TKO – Punches), more recently. This will be the first time Dariush makes the walk since the December 2023 knockout at the hands of Tsarukyan, who's now the No. 1 contender in the division.
The 36-year-old is a black belt in both Brazilian jiu-jitsu and Muay Thai. Of his 22 professional wins, he has racked up nine decision wins, eight submissions and five knockouts. He's landing 3.78 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 2.65 strikes per minute. In the takedown department, Dariush is averaging 1.90 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 34% success rate. He's fending off 80% of opposing attempts.
Betting Profile: Renato Moicano (20-6-1)
Last Five Fights: L-W-W-W-W
Brazil's Renato "Money" Moicano has been on an electric run in the UFC, and it even earned him a title fight against Islam Makhachev, due to Arman Tsarukyan pulling out of the original bout with an injury. Moicano was quickly discarded by Makhachev with a first-round submission (D'Arce Choke), but still, it gave him his first taste of fighting for UFC gold. Previously, Moicano rattled off four consecutive wins, taking care of Brad Riddell (SUB - Rear Naked Choke), Drew Dober (U-DEC), Jalin Turner (TKO/KO - Punches) and Benoit Saint Denis (KO/TKO - Doctor's Stoppage).
Like Dariush, Moicano is a dual black belt in both Brazilian jiu-jitsu and Muay Thai. Of his 20 MMA victories, the 36-year-old has 10 submissions, eight decision wins and a pair of knockouts. He's landing 4.36 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.55 strikes per 60 seconds. Moicano averages 1.82 takedowns per 15 minutes and is landing his attempts at a 44% clip. He's defending 71% of opposing attempts.
Bottom Line
This card is stacked, and one of the tighter-lined fights is this main-card clash between Beneil Dariush and Renato Moicano. Moicano is a slim -122 Moneyline favorite, while Dariush comes back at +102 to snap his two-fight slide.
The price is spot-on for this fight. If we saw Dariush get out to the +120 or +130 range, I think it'd be worth a play on him. However, with just a -122 price tag on the upward-trending Moicano, it seems like it's the right move to back him in this spot.
For starters, it's fair to question how Dariush will look after a 19-month layoff. He was also destroyed in back-to-back fights against top-five brawlers in the division before the hiatus. Now he'll try to come back at 36 years old and take on a guy who's on a meteoric rise in Moicano.
The Brazilian has the momentum here, and he continues to pass every reasonable test that's put in front of him. He's well-rounded, posing a threat both on the feet and on the canvas, so he should hold up well against a fighter of Dariush's caliber. Plus, even though he lost his title shot to Islam Makhachev, the taste of competing for UFC gold has to be inspiring and an excellent learning experience. I'll take the confident Moicano against a potentially rusty Dariush in this fight at 155 pounds.
Bet: Renato Moicano Moneyline (-122)