UFC 315 Odds & Picks: Jose Aldo vs. Aiemann Zahabi (2025)
It's always a treat when (#11) Jose Aldo enters the cage, and he's set to do so for his 42nd professional MMA fight on Saturday night. His opponent will be Quebec's own (#15) Aiemann Zahabi, who will be fighting in front of his home fans in Montreal. Below I'll dive into all of the key information for this ranked Bantamweight bout and finish with betting analysis and my favorite wager for the 135-pound tilt at UFC 315.
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UFC 315: Jose Aldo vs. Aiemann Zahabi Betting Guide
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Jose Aldo (32-9-0)
Last Five Fights (L-W-L-W-W)
Brazil's Jose Aldo continues to be competitive in the MMA world at the age of 38, but he's coming off of a loss to Mario Bautista (S-DEC) last time out in October 2024. He's not 1-2 in his last three fights, logging a loss to Merab Dvalishvili (U-DEC) and adding a win against Jonathan Martinez (U-DEC), more recently.
One area where Aldo continues to hold up well is his grappling, which is exemplified by that fact that he went a perfect 16-for-16 on stuffing takedown attempts from Dvalishvili in their 2022 bout. He's up to a 92% takedown defense rate in his UFC career. Offensively, the Brazilian is landing 0.49 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 53% success rate. In terms of his striking, Aldo is averaging 3.62 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.72 significant strikes per minute.
Betting Profile: Aiemann Zahabi (12-2-0)
Last Five Fights (W-W-W-W-W)
Quebec native Aimann Zahabi has rattled off five straight wins in the UFC, and he broke into the top 15 with a victory against Pedro Munhoz (U-DEC) last time out. The 37-year-old has also handled Drako Rodriguez (KO/TKO - Punch), Ricky Turcios (U-DEC), Aoriqileng (KO/TKO - Punch), and Javid Basharat (U-DEC) en route to Saturday's main card tilt. Both of those knockouts came in the first round, giving Zahabi eight first-round finishes in his professional career.
Of his 12 professional wins, Zahabi has logged six knockouts and a pair of submissions. He's averaging 4.06 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing the exact same amount of strikes. The Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt isn't very active in the takedown department, landing only 0.16 takedowns per 15 minutes. He's fending off 83% of opposing takedown attempts and hasn't been taken down since 2017.
Bottom Line
This should be an excellent main card showdown on Saturday night, but the sports betting market expects to see Jose Aldo get back into the win column, pricing him at -205 to win the bout. Aiemann Zahabi comes back as a +170 moneyline underdog, as he looks to secure his sixth straight victory.
This is going to be a stand-up fight, as both men enter with takedown defense rates of 83%+. Aldo has one takedown in his last 16 fights, while Zahabi hasn't logged a single takedown during his current five-fight winning streak.
Maybe I'm crazy, but I think this moneyline has gotten out a little too far in favor of Aldo. Zahabi is a tried-and-true boxer, so he should have no issue standing in the pocket and throwing hands with Aldo. I feel that this fight should be much closer to a pick 'em, or maybe Aldo has a slim edge in the -120 range.
The biggest metric that stands out to me is Zahabi's strike defense rate of 71%, which means his opponents are only landing 29% of their strike attempts. In a fight that's likely going to the judges' scorecards, Zahabi's actually set up quite nicely here. He doesn't get hit very often and he's also averaging more significant strikes per minute (4.06 vs. 3.62), which should make the judges' jobs pretty easy if it plays out that way.
Then you can factor in that Zahabi is fighting in his home province and trains in Montreal. He's also riding a five-fight winning streak, so clearly he's in great form. As I was alluding to above, there's a ton of value with the underdog in this fight. I'll ride with the hometown kid in Quebec on Saturday night.
Pick: Aiemann Zahabi Moneyline (+170)