UFC 315 Odds & Picks: Benoit Saint Denis vs. Kyle Prepolec (2025)
The UFC 315 main card opens up with a banger in the Lightweight division, as Canada's own Kyle Prepolec steps up to take on (#13) Benoit Saint Denis. Let's recap each fighter's path to Saturday's contest in Montreal, Quebec, and finish with my betting analysis and favorite play for the brawl.
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UFC 315: Benoit Saint Denis vs. Kyle Prepolec Betting Guide
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Benoit Saint Denis (13-3-0, 1 NC)
Last Five Fights (L-L-W-W-W)
You know there's going to be some fireworks when France's Benoit Saint Denis makes the walk. Outside of a unanimous-decision loss in his UFC debut to Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos in 2021, Saint Denis' subsequent seven fights have all failed to go to the judges' scorecards. He's 5-2 during the span, but both losses have come in his last two trips to the cage. Those defeats were at the hands of Dustin Poirier (KO/TKO - Punch) and Renato Moicano (KO/TKO - Doctor's Stoppage), more recently. Saint Denis was beat up pretty good in his two recent fights, getting out-struck a combined 100-53 in the two knockout losses.
The 29-year-old has been very active in the takedown department, averaging 3.97 takedowns per 15 minutes. He's landing them at a 37% success rate, while fending off 68% of opposing takedown attempts. Up top, Saint Denis is averaging 5.17 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.98 strikes per minute. He's currently a black belt in Judo and a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.
Betting Profile: Kyle Prepolec (18-8-0)
Last Two Fights (L-L)
Joel Alvarez was originally slated to face Saint Denis, but was forced to withdraw with a hand injury. This paved the way for Ontario native Kyle Prepolec to take the fight. The 35-year-old makes his return to the UFC after a 5+ year hiatus from the promotion, after he went 0-2 and was released. Those defeats came against Nordine Taleb (U-DEC) in his debut and Austin Hubbard (U-DEC), more recently.
In the meantime, Propolec has gone 4-1 with various other promotions and enters riding a three-fight winning streak. All three of the recent wins came via first-round knockout, giving him 10 KOs and four submissions across his 18-8-0 professional career.
Bottom Line
As of this writing (Friday morning), this fight doesn't have very many open betting options. We do know that Benoit Saint Denis is a massive -1050 moneyline favorite, while Kyle Prepolec comes back at +675 to secure his first UFC victory. The total is also set at 1.5 rounds (O +150, U -195), with heavy juice to the Under.
When more markets become available as we approach UFC 315, I'll be looking to play the French-born brawler to win this fight in the first round. Saint Denis has taken his lumps against a couple of serious killers in Dustin Poirier and Renato Moicano, but he's proven that he can dismantle any of the mid-tier fighters in the Lightweight division.
He's a finishing machine, seeing all 13 of his professional wins come via stoppage with four knockouts and nine submissions. Two of Prepolic's eight defeats have come via submission, so look for the Judo black belt/BJJ brown belt to take this fight to the canvas and ragdoll Prepolic. I know Prepolic is on a nice three-fight winning streak, but he's back with the big dogs now. I'm willing to bet against him finding success in this fight. I'll take the "God of War" to win this fight in the opening five minutes.
Pick: Benoit Saint Denis To Win in the First Round (N/A)