UFC 315 Odds & Picks: Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena (2025)
The UFC packs its bags and heads to the Great White North, where UFC 315 is slated for Saturday, May 10. A pair of championship belts are on the line in Montreal, Quebec, but all roads lead to a Welterweight showdown between (C) Belal Muhammad and (#5) Jack Della Maddalena. Below I'll recap each fighter's road to the title bout, touch on their key metrics and trends, and wrap it up with my betting analysis for the main event at 170 lbs.
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UFC 315: Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena Betting Guide
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Belal Muhammad (24-3-0, 1 NC)
Last Five Fights (W-W-W-W-W)
We're coming up on roughly 10 months since Belal Muhammad captured the Welterweight strap, dominating Leon Edwards in unanimous-decision fashion over five rounds. Aside from a no-contest against Edwards in March 2021, Muhammad has now won his last 10 fights. He was scheduled to fight (#2) Shavkat Rakhmonov at UFC 310, but was forced to pull out due to a bone infection in October 2024. It's hard to imagine that we won't get a Muhammad-Rakhmonov bout if the champ comes through on Saturday night.
Stylistically, the American-born brawler is a tried-and-true wrestler. He's averaging 2.28 takedowns per minute, landing his attempts at a 39% success rate. He's fending off a solid 89% of opposing takedown attempts. As for his striking, Muhammad is landing 4.39 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.48 strikes per minute. Of his 24 professional wins, the 36-year-old has 18 decisions, five knockouts, and one submission.
Betting Profile: Jack Della Maddalena (17-2-0)
Last Five Fights (W-W-W-W-W)
Including his Dana White Contender Series win back in September 2021, Jack Della Maddalena is a perfect 8-0 when fighting on the UFC-branded canvas. His biggest wins have come recently, where he edged out Kevin Holland in a split-decision, before knocking out Gilbert Burns (Elbows) in the third round of a March 2024 fight. He's been idle since the Burns bout-due to a broken arm suffered in the fight-so this will be the 28-year-old's first action in 14 months. He's 17-2-0 in his professional career, collecting 12 knockouts and a pair of submissions.
Della Maddalena is a high-volume striker, averaging an insane 6.74 significant strikes per minute. He's absorbing 4.27 significant strikes per minute, and his opponents are landing those punches at a measly 34% clip. The Aussie isn't too active in the takedown department, averaging only 0.21 takedowns per 15 minutes. He's stopping 70% of opposing takedown attempts. Della Maddalena's a boxer stylistically, but boasts a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.
Bottom Line
This should be a fantastic main event in Quebec on Saturday, as Belal Muhammad looks to make his first defense of the title at 170 pounds. The oddsmakers at DraftKings Sportsbook believe that the American will retain the belt, pricing him at -175 on the moneyline. Challenger Jack Della Maddalena comes back at +145 to get his hand raised.
I'm a Chicago guy, so I've been following Muhammad for some time now as he's made this championship run. My biggest takeaway is that he has excellent adaptability and a high "fighter IQ." He seemingly always puts himself in a good position to win, exploiting his opponents' weaknesses, while also avoiding playing into their strengths.
I mention this because it's clear that Della Maddalena is going to want to keep this fight on the feet and turn it into a boxing match. However, I'm not sure that he's going to get that wish. I went back and watched the Della Maddalena-Burns fight, and Burns found quite a bit of success with his takedowns. He went 7-for-11 (63%) and amassed 5:07 worth of ground control time. The Australian has now been taken down 10 times in his last three outings.
Muhammad, an elite wrestler, should be able to throw off Della Maddalena's boxing presence all throughout this fight, as he mixes in takedowns and forces plenty of scrambles. This should benefit us well, as it'll simply chew up the clock in the 25-minute fight. When factoring in that Muhammad has only been knocked out once and has a 57% strike defense rate (only 43% of opposing shots land), I expect him to survive the 25 minutes and come out on top.
Between the experience and the fact that Muhammad is the more battled-tested fighter, I think he gets it done by decision again. During his current 10-fight winning streak, he's logged seven decision victories. "Remember the Name" doesn't go for style points, he simply knows how to pick apart his opponents over 25 minutes and record wins. I'll take Muhammad to win by points.
Pick: Belal Muhammad To Win By Decision (-115)