UFC 314 Picks & Predictions: Nikita Krylov vs. Dominick Reyes (2025)
The Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida, is hosting the UFC this week for UFC 314. The featherweight title is up for grabs after Ilia Topuria vacated the belt to move up a division to lightweight. Alexander Volkanovski held the belt for over four years and will have a chance to win it back against Diego Lopes, who has won five in a row in route to a title shot. The card also features two ranked featherweight fights between Yair Rodriguez and newcomer Patricio Pitbull, while Bryce Mitchell will fight Jean Silva. The night begins at 6 p.m. EDT, and the main card starts at 10 p.m. EDT on pay-per-view.
UFC 314: Nikita Krylov vs. Dominick Reyes
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Nikita Krylov (-175)
Nikita Krylov is 30-9 as a professional and 11-7 in the UFC. He has won three in a row, submitting Ryan Spann in the first round in his last fight. He beat Volkan Oezdemir via decision and Alexander Gustafsson via knockout. Krylov is on a little run in the light heavyweight division and is ranked eighth.
He lands 4.38 significant strikes and absorbs 2.47 significant strikes per minute. Krylov lands with 55% accuracy and defends 44% of significant strikes. He averages 2.29 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, with 38% accuracy, and defends 53% of takedowns. He also averages 1.4 submissions attempted per 15 minutes.
Dominick Reyes (+145)
Dominick Reyes is 14-4 as a professional and 8-4 in the UFC. He has faced quality opponents for most of those fights and has quality experience. Reyes won two in a row in 2024 after dropping four in a row from 2020 to 2022. He beat Anthony Smith and Dustin Jacoby, both via knockout.
Reyes lands 5.64 significant strikes and absorbs 3.59 significant strikes per minute. He lands with 54% accuracy and defends 49% of significant strikes. He only averages 0.31 takedowns per 15 minutes with 28% accuracy but has defended 82% of takedowns in his career.
Prediction
Nikita Krylov has not fought since March 2023, which is not a good sign, especially against Reyes. Reyes is dangerous as a striker and is fast for the division. Reyes has poured it on his opponents quickly in his last two fights. Krylov does not have the best hands in the division, and Reyes is a southpaw, which may also pose a problem for Krylov. He relies on takedowns and control in most of his fights. He also does not have a lot of power in the division. Krylov can find a knockout, but it is not his specialty.
Reyes took some time off after his four-fight losing streak and has returned with confidence. He will not get taken down and controlled by Krylov, and this fight will be primarily striking. That gives Reyes all the advantages. Reyes has quick punches and showed patience in his last fight against Anthony Smith. He fought behind his jab well and landed 121 significant strikes. He must avoid takedowns, but his wrestling is up to the test. Reyes can find a knockout in this fight and is a solid prop to play, but I will take him as the underdog in a matchup where I think he should be the favorite.
Pick: Dominick Reyes (+145)