UFC 314 Picks & Predictions: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes (2025)
The UFC returns with another numbered card this weekend, and the promotion packs its bags and heads down to South Beach for UFC 314. The main event in Miami, Florida features a Featherweight title fight for a vacated belt (previously Ilia Topuria) between former Champion (#1) Alexander Volkanovski and rising star (#3) Diego Lopes. Below, I'll dive into each fighter's recent form, touch on their key metrics, and wrap things up with my betting analysis and favorite wager.
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UFC 314: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes Betting Guide
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Alexander Volkanovski (26-4-0)
Alexander Volkanovski has put together an incredible resume throughout the years, and he enters Saturday's main event with a record of 26-4-0. However, three of those defeats have come in his last four trips to the cage. Volk dropped championship fights at 155 pounds to Islam Makhachev (U-DEC, KO - Kick), before returning to 145 pounds and losing to Ilia Topuria (KO/TKO - Punch) in a title fight. Sprinkled in, there was a championship defense at Featherweight where the now-36-year-old took care of Yair Rodriguez (KO/TKO - Punches) back in July 2023.
Statistically, the Australian-born brawler is a high-volume striker, averaging 6.16 significant strikes per minute. He's absorbing only 3.44 strikes per minute. Alexander "The Great" boasts a solid 70% takedown defense rate, and he's also landing 1.78 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 37% success rate. Volkanovski is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and he's racked up 13 knockout wins and a trio of submissions throughout his professional career.
Betting Profile: Diego Lopes (26-6-0)
After dropping consecutive fights to Joanderson Brito (U-DEC) and Movsar Evloev (U-DEC) to start his UFC career, 30-year-old Diego Lopes has rattled off five straight wins en route to this title fight. Most notably, the Brazilian-born fighter took down Sodiq Yusuff (KO/TKO - Punches), Dan Ige (U-DEC), and Brian Ortega (U-DEC). Lopes out-struck Ortega 106-63 in his most recent victory, while landing one takedown and racking up 2:45 worth of control time.
Lopes, who's a black belt in BJJ, isn't too active in terms of wrestling, as he's landing only 0.50 takedowns per 15 minutes. He's successful on 40% of his attempts, while fending off only 52% of opposing takedown attempts. As for his striking, Lopes is landing 4.20 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.11 strikes per minute.
Bottom Line
The oddsmakers over at DraftKings Sportsbook are expecting a tight fight, as former champion Alexander Volkanvoski is a narrow -130 moneyline to reclaim the Featherweight strap. Diego Lopes comes back at +110 to win his first attempt at UFC gold.
I agree that this fight is roughly a toss-up, and I do think it's fair to question Volk's age and recent form. However, a couple of losses to Islam Makhachev, who's on the way to becoming an all-timer in the promotion, isn't really a huge blemish in my eyes. I guess what I'm trying to say is that not all losses are created equal.
I simply think that the Aussie is the more battle-tested fighter. Perhaps he's lost a step and isn't as dialed in after the two recent knockouts against Ilia Topuria and Makhachev, but I feel confident saying that Lopes isn't nearly as sharp as those two UFC superstars.
Volkanovski is the higher-volume striker (6.16 SL/M vs. 4.20), and he also holds edges in both striking accuracy (56% vs. 53%) and strike defense rate (58% vs. 50%). Furthermore, Lopes has yet to fight into the championship rounds in his UFC career. If this one stretches into the fourth and fifth rounds, Volk should have an edge. I think Lopes will be champion of this division one day, but it won't come this weekend in Miami.
Bet: Alexander Volkanovski Moneyline (-130)