Top 3 MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks: Tuesday (5/6)
Of the new series starting today, several feature teams that were expected to compete for playoff spots, but have not come out blazing out of the starting gates (Rangers-Red Sox, Orioles-Twins, Phillies-Rays). Will those teams’ stars raise their teams’ expectations beginning this week? Read on for our top MLB player prop bets for Tuesday, May 6th.
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Tuesday's Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Tony Gonsolin to record a win (-110)
Dodgers righty Tony Gonsolin made his long anticipated season debut last week after missing the final month of the 2023 season and all of 2024 following Tommy John surgery.
There were doubts about how long Gonsolin would be able to go in that start given the long layoff, but he still completed six innings in a 12-7 win over the Marlins, while posting an impressive 9:0 K:BB ratio.
Gonsolin faces the same Marlins team today on the road, and he induced Miami’s hitters into 17 whiffs on 42 swings. Gonsolin also recorded a 43% CSW% on all of his pitches and a 34% CSW% on each of his individual pitches.
I expect him to lead the Dodgers to another big win, especially since there should be positive regression coming for L.A.’s 2-9 runline record as road favorites this season.
Paul Skenes Under 6.5 strikeouts (-155)
Paul Skenes has dazzled to this point early in his career, but the one team that continues to be his nemesis is the St. Louis Cardinals.
St. Louis was not only the sole team to beat Skenes twice in his impressive rookie campaign last season, but it also tagged Skenes for a career-high five earned runs and six hits in a 5-3 win earlier this season that snapped a four-game losing streak at the time.
While the Cardinals may not be viewed as the most feared offensive team, they set an NL record with nine consecutive games with 10-plus hits to start the season, and scored four or more runs in each of their first 11.
Skenes is 0-3 in four starts against the Cardinals, and has 30 strikeouts in 26 2/3 career innings against them. While Skenes will be motivated for revenge and to claim his first win against the division rivals, the Cardinals have had too much success against him to ignore. That lends value to the Under on Skenes’ strikeouts.
Javier Baez Under 1.5 total bases (-165)
Javier Baez batted .238, .222, and .184 respectively over the last three seasons. That makes it is a much welcomed surprised that he is currently slashing .309/.350/.479 in an attempt to return to his All-Star form this season.
However, I expect regression to be coming for Baez considering his expected batting average is 70 points lower than his actual average. In addition, his chase, hard-hit, whiff, and barrel rates all rank in the 25th percentile or lower among all qualified hitters.
Baez has an opportunity to improve upon his outstanding numbers with this series in Coors Field this week, but the hitter-friendly atmosphere inflated his prop odds too much for me to back.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.