Top 3 MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks: Saturday (5/3)
Saturday’s 15-game Major League Baseball slate has just one game (Rays-Yankees) played in the 1:00 p.m. ET afternoon slate, giving bettors plenty of time to do their research and get their bets in.
Our three MLB player prop wagers focus on a fast-rising Cy Young Award contender, a leadoff hitter on one of the best teams in baseball and a starting pitcher whose numbers are due to regress.
Read on for our top MLB player prop bets for Saturday, May 3rd.
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Saturday's Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Hunter Brown to Record a Win (-135)
Framber Valdez may have begun the season as the Houston Astros’ most logical Cy Young Award candidate, but Hunter Brown has quickly shot up the futures leaderboard given his outstanding start to the season.
It was just one calendar year ago when Brown finished April of 2024 with an 11.84 ERA. However, the coaching staff had patience with their young righty, and he rewarded them by finishing with a 3.49 ERA and never had an ERA worse than 4.00 in any month after that horrendous April.
Brown has picked up right where he left off with a 1.22 ERA (fourth-lowest in the league) and just one earned run allowed in his last 25 innings. All six of his starts have been quality starts, and his 1.16 ERA through his first five starts is the fifth-lowest by an Astros pitcher through his first five starts in the Wild Card era.
Brown should cruise past a White Sox lineup that entered the weekend with an American League-worst team batting average, slugging percentage and wOBA.
Francisco Lindor Over 0.5 Runs (-145)
Francisco Lindor entered the weekend tied for second among Mets players with 22 runs scored and was third in on-base percentage (OBP). He is in his much better hitting split facing a right-handed pitcher, as he entered the series opener against the St. Louis Cardinals slashing .309/.384/.515 against right-handed pitchers and .259/.276/.370 against southpaws.
Lindor has had great career success against today’s starting pitcher, Erick Fedde. Lindor is 6-for-19 with a home run and a .860 OPS against Fedde, while Fedde has allowed a combined .327/.401/.478 slash line in 110 at-bats to current Mets hitters.
Juan Soto is always a threat to drive in Lindor, and Pete Alonso also owns a 1.042 OPS in 16 at-bats against Fedde, which means New York’s leadoff hitter will be well-protected today.
Roki Sasaki Over 2.5 Walks (+100)
Atlanta gets its first look at Los Angeles’ top prospect, Roki Sasaki, as the righty did not pitch in the first series between these teams.
Sasaki is still looking for his first win in his seventh career start. While his ERA is a respectable 3.55, his other metrics leave much to be desired. Sasaki ranks in the 15th percentile or lower in hard-hit rate allowed, chase percentage and walk rate. Those are all big reasons his xERA (5.49) is much higher than his actual ERA.
Sasaki has gotten off to rough starts, as his 6.00 first-inning ERA is tied for his worst of any inning. He has had to sacrifice velocity in recent starts to try and get his 16.4% walk rate in order. That is why I am expecting Sasaki to walk three or more batters tonight.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.