NBA Playoffs Player Prop Bets, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (Warriors vs. Timberwolves)
The NBA playoffs have had some incredible games to start the second round. We only have one game on Thursday night. If you're just joining us for the first time, welcome. It's been a great year, and I hope we continue that trend tonight. As always, monitor any potential news and lineup announcements.
The best way to stay informed about NBA player props is to stay up-to-date with the latest news. That's not as prevalent in the playoffs, but you never know what might happen. The second-best way is to shop around at different books. Player props rarely have identical odds across platforms, so ensure you get the best value. Let's get to it.
Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be for a single unit.
Thursday’s Best NBA Player Prop Bets
Last Time: 2-1 | Season: 158-112
Rudy Gobert Over 21.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-110 at BetMGM)
With Steph Curry out, Minnesota has become a 10.5-point favorite at home, but this game’s total is still just 201. Despite the low total, I'm riding Rudy Gobert overs. The Timberwolves center has covered this line in 62% of games this season and should see a bounce-back from a troubling series-opening performance.
Gobert was the reason the Lakers got sent home, and while that kind of game is tough to replicate, we've seen what he can do. The total is low, and it makes sense to fade some hoopers here, but I'm going to zag and take the over. The Warriors had the best defense in the second half of the season, but they still allowed the 13th-most fantasy points to opposing centers over their final 15 games. Gobert is set up well here.
Anthony Edwards Under 40.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-112 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Another zag I'm taking is fading Anthony Edwards despite the setup. He has gotten all the hype and is likely the most popular player bet on to go off, but as I've mentioned before, post-All-Star break Golden State ranked number one in defensive efficiency. This is also one of the lowest totals in the playoffs and a line that Edwards has only covered in 34% of games this year.
Of course, he's Minnesota's go-to player, but if the Warriors are going to win this game sans Curry, it will be with their defense and slowing down the game to keep it within arm’s reach. Edwards is going to be the clear target defensively, and I trust Warriors head coach Steve Kerr to scheme something up to keep the Minnesota star at bay.
Gary Payton II Over 13.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-120 at bet365)
I will take Gary Payton II and the over on this combo prop. He should start tonight and play 26-28 minutes. That alone makes me confident in his ability to get over his combined points + assists + rebounds prop, as he got to 17 on Tuesday. Payton is projected closer to 17 here by the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet, and I follow the cheat sheet with my life. It's an excellent resource to use for all your betting needs.
Minnesota's defense took a hit towards the end of the season, and I think it's a bit overrated right now. Payton doesn't take a step back on the road and has a fair usage rate when he's on the court. Of course, he'll see a minutes increase. Still, this lines up as a solid spot for Payton to succeed.
Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.