NBA Player Prop Bets, Picks & Predictions: Friday (4/11)
Welcome to another day of basketball, as we are deep into the NBA season with the playoffs right around the corner. If you're joining us for the first time, welcome. It's been a great year, and I hope we continue that trend as we look to the playoffs. All teams play tonight on a 15-game slate, so there's a lot to cover.
The Western Conference has a lot up in the air, making for some interesting games. As always, monitor injury news and lineup announcements. The best way to stay sharp regarding NBA player props is by staying on top of the news. The second-best way is to shop around at different sportsbooks. Player props rarely have identical odds across platforms, so ensure you get the best value. Let's get to it.
Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be for a single unit.
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Friday's Best NBA Player Prop Bets
Last Time: 3-0 | Season: 140-98
Nikola Jokic Over 53.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Go big or go home, right? Denver and Memphis are in lockstep in the West standings, especially with Memphis dropping to Minnesota last night. Playing Memphis on a back-to-back and having to travel across the country is already a step up, and the over is set around 240.
Nikola Jokic has covered this line a little over half of the season. Memphis is the perfect team to bet opponent overs against. The Grizzlies are the fastest-paced team in the league; Denver is close behind at seventh.
Since the All-Star break, Memphis ranks 18th defensively. This is a big game for the Nuggets, who still can fall to an NBA Play-In Tournament spot as of this morning. I expect them to depend on their best player, and arguably the best player in the NBA, so don't be surprised to see an increase in his 30% usage rate either as he goes over this line.
James Harden Over 33.5 Points + Assists (-110 at bet365)
Another team that needs a bit of a boost entering the playoffs is the Los Angeles Clippers, who are likely to get the No. 4 or No. 5 seed but can still move up or down to an NBA Play-In Tournament spot. Enter James Harden. The Clippers guard has averaged nearly 25 points and 10 assists a night in his last four games. While that's a bit inflated compared to his options, I still am riding this momentum wave I expect to continue against the Kings.
Sacramento has all but locked up the No. 9 spot, and their metrics aren't as promising either. Their defense ranks 21st since the All-Star break and 19th in their last 10 games - not great. Los Angeles is riding a six-game winning streak. I expect that to continue tonight as Harden sits around a 30% usage rate and can cover this line with his scoring alone.
LeBron James Over 35.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-120 at bet365)
I'm usually a bit hesitant betting LeBron James overs because usually his props are inflated with everyone running to bet them, but tonight is different. This is a line he's covered in 67% of his games. Despite the tougher matchup tonight, this is a bit too big of a reaction by the sportsbooks going up against Houston.
Los Angeles is trying to lock in the No. 3 seed while Houston has already locked in the No. 2 seed. At home against a team likely not giving it their all while multiple starters are questionable means their sixth-ranked defense likely won't be at full strength here.
Additional Prop Bets to Consider
- Coby White Under 29.5 Points + Rebounds (-120 at bet365)
- Bradley Beal Over 20.5 Points + Assists (-125 at ESPN Bet)
- Jrue Holiday Over 14.5 Points + Rebounds (-110 at ESPN Bet)
Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.