MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Thursday (5/8)
Nearly seven weeks of MLB action are in the books. Aaron Judge of the Yankees, Cal Raleigh of the Mariners and Kyle Schwarber of the Phillies all sit tied atop the home run leaderboard with 12 blasts. Of course, they’re not the only ones displaying a power stroke at the plate.
Here's a look at three pros worth backing to launch a ball beyond the fence on Thursday, May 8, with our MLB home run best bets.
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Thursday’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Kyle Schwarber (+235)
It’s taking some time for Ryan Pepiot to adjust to calling George M. Steinbrenner Field home. After all, the Rays right-hander has surrendered 32 hits and eight home runs in five starts at the Tampa venue. Half of those homers have come off his four-seamer, which makes sense as it’s a pitch he tosses over 39% of the time. It’s a worrisome trend as Philadelphia’s roster features strong sluggers ready to demolish fastballs.
That may be more accurate for Kyle Schwarber than anyone else. The two-time All-Star is batting .350 with eight dingers versus the fastball this campaign. The knocks that do stay in the yard aren’t cheap, either. The average exit velocity of his 21 hits off fastballs is a whopping 97.6 miles per hour (MPH). Schwarber leads the Phillies with a .593 slugging percentage on the road and has a great chance at bettering that mark on Thursday night.
Freddie Freeman (+380)
The Dodgers present one of the most daunting lineups in the sport, but it is even more daunting when Freddie Freeman is on a hot streak. The veteran first baseman is slashing .480/.519/.920 with three home runs and a triple in May (six games). On the year, Freeman ranks as a top-10 batter in launch-angle sweet-spot percentage (44%) and squared-up percentage (46.5%). He is simply smashing baseballs.
Up next for Freeman is a showdown with Arizona’s Brandon Pfaadt. The Diamondbacks pitcher has conceded six homers across his past six starts and has recorded a mediocre 6.20 ERA through four career outings against the Dodgers. It’s worth mentioning that Freeman has already taken Pfaadt deep before and has posted a .373/.433/.702 slash line to go with 41 extra-base hits in 55 games played at Chase Field. This is a matchup he can exploit.
Jordan Beck (+550)
Let’s stick with the strategy of picking someone on a tear, but switch focus to an under-the-radar option. Outfielder Jordan Beck is stuck on a Rockies team that has tallied the fewest wins in 2025 (six). That hasn’t stopped him from logging five home runs and a .791 slugging percentage during the last 15 days. Beck is showcasing his skills by barreling pitches at the fifth-highest rate in the league (21.7%).
Primarily playing in a stadium that ranks No. 1 in Statcast’s offensive park factors since the beginning of the 2023 season is a huge benefit for Beck. He is capitalizing on his opportunities at Coors Field, and that shouldn’t change on Thursday. Casey Mize draws the start for Detroit in Game 1 of a doubleheader. He has been tagged for at least one homer in each of his previous four starts and has never taken the mound in Colorado’s elevated thin air at the MLB level.