MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Friday (4/25)
The 2025 MLB season rolls on with another full slate of games on Friday. With 15 matchups and all 30 teams to choose from, let's dive into the top MLB home run picks and predictions for today's action.
Betting on specific players to hit a home run is a fun and alternative way to get action on MLB games. The plus-money odds can provide bigger payouts if you nail the right guy to go yard. Let's focus on a couple of MLB players worth backing to hit a homer on Friday, April 25.
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Friday’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
Aaron Judge (+170 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting on Aaron Judge to hit a home run is chalky, but sometimes the stats and trends don't lie. The reigning American League MVP is on fire this season with a .415 batting average and 1.247 OPS. He has seven home runs through 25 games.
Amid the hot start, Judge is currently on a slight homerless drought. He hasn't gone deep in seven straight games and has only one home run over his past 18 games. The New York Yankees outfielder is due to leave the yard, and he can do so Friday night at home.
Judge is hitting .476 with a 1.601 OPS at home this year with six homers in 12 home contests. He'll get a favorable head-to-head matchup against Toronto Blue Jays starter Jose Berrios. In their careers, Judge boasts a .382 batting average and 1.332 OPS against Berrios. He's also hit five home runs in 42 career plate appearances vs. the right-hander.
Meanwhile, Berrios is always susceptible to the long ball. He gave up 31 home runs last year, tied for the second-most in the MLB. Berrios also allowed 25 and 29 homers in the two previous seasons. This year, he's already coughed up six home runs through five starts.
It's a great matchup at home for Judge to find the seats. Berrios gave up 21 homers in 17 road starts last year. He also has a 6.05 ERA with 10 home runs allowed in eight career outings at Yankee Stadium.
Francisco Lindor (+350 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Francisco Lindor is one of the hottest hitters on the planet right now. The New York Mets star shortstop has a .467 batting average, 1.367 OPS and four home runs over his past seven games. He's also hitting .344 over his last 15 contests.
Lindor started the year slowly in the power department but is back on track. He hit 33 home runs last year and has 30+ bombs in five of his last seven full seasons. He's locked in at the plate right now and can keep it going with a favorable head-to-head matchup tonight.
Washington Nationals starter Jake Irvin coughed up 29 home runs last season, tied for the seventh-most in baseball. This year, Irvin has already allowed six homers in five starts. The long ball has been an issue for the right-hander, who's now given up 55 homers across 62 career starts.
In this matchup, the switch-hitting Lindor will start on the left side against the right-handed Irvin. That bodes well for Lindor's chances. All five of his homers have come as a lefty this year, and he's hitting .321 with a .946 OPS against right-handers so far. Last season, 22 of his 33 home runs came as a left-handed hitter. Meanwhile, Irvin allowed 17 of his 29 homers last year to lefties. He's given up four bombs and an .817 OPS to lefty swingers so far this season.
Furthermore, Lindor has seen Irvin well. He's 5-for-10 with a home run against the Nats starter in their careers. It's a small sample size, but it provides yet another data point in Lindor's favor here.