MLB Futures: World Series Winners Sleepers & Longshots (2025)

by Travis Pulver |
May 06, 2025

In this monthly article, we like to have 'Fun with Futures.' Does that mean talking about which current favorite is going to win? No! It means uncovering a few MLB futures markets that are not getting the attention they deserve. Yes, I'm talking about betting on markets with longer odds. Because when you bet, it's a lot more fun when you win more money while risking less.

To that end, I've identified a few World Series markets that may be worth rolling the dice on.

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Best World Series Odds: Teams With +2000

Four of the last five World Series winners (not counting the COVID season) had odds of +1000 or longer to win the World Series on May 1. They may have been on the outskirts of conversations but were not included among the top contender talks.

But they went on to win it all.

Of course, the trick in betting on such a team now is being able to judge whether the success they’ve enjoyed to date is sustainable or if they’re a flash in the pan.

To that end, we've identified three teams that started the season with long enough odds that they were not really in World Series conversations. But they have played well enough to date that their odds have gotten shorter since the season got underway:

San Diego Padres
Chicago Cubs
Detroit Tigers

All three started the season with +3000 odds of winning the World Series, which gave them a 3.23% shot. As of May 1, all three have +2000 odds, which gives them a 4.76% chance. With such a small shot, you may be thinking, "Heck no!" and I wouldn't blame you.

But then I'd point out that the Texas Rangers had +3000 odds on May 1 during the 2023 season. Houston had +1000 odds on May 1 in 2022, and Atlanta had +1500 odds on May 1 during the 2021 season.

But What If You Only Want To Roll The Dice On One?

Let's say you have a $100 budget to bet on World Series markets and you have no interest in betting on one of the top teams and getting a minimal return on your investment. No, you want to roll the dice but don't want to spread your money across three different markets. You like the idea of putting down $100 on one of the aforementioned teams and winning $2,000.

But which one has the best chance of pulling it off?

San Diego Padres

I like the Padres. San Diego is 22-11 on the season. They've been hitting the ball well (.260 BA, No. 3 in the league), and their pitching staff has the lowest ERA in the game (2.75), and teams are only hitting .211 (No. 3) against them. However, they are lacking in one very important way.

Power. Their slugging percentage is .393 (No. 14), and they have only hit 29 home runs (No. 21).

Chicago Cubs

The Cubbies definitely appear to have an offense that can go far with a .262 batting average (No. 1) and a .455 slugging percentage (No. 3). So, not only are they good at making contact, but they can also hit the cover off the ball. However, their pitching is lacking.

It's not bad (3.82 ERA); it's just not great (No. 14).

Detroit Tigers

The Tigers have a 22-13 record to date and are in first place in the AL Central. They are hitting the ball well (.255, No. 5) and have exhibited decent power to boot (.423 slugging). Surely this means their pitching suffers... Or maybe it doesn't. Detroit is one of three teams with a sub-3.0 ERA for the whole pitching staff (2.96). Teams are hitting .218 against them.

History tells us that a team can make it to the World Series as long as they are great at either hitting or pitching. But, based on what we've seen so far, the Tigers may have the best team in town (top 5 BA, slugging: No. 3 pitching). If they can sustain it, they'll win the World Series.

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