2025 Würth 400: NASCAR at Texas Odds, Picks & Predictions
A lot like the racing itself, motorsports betting comes in waves. After a back-and-forth, bad-beat-laced beginning to the season, I swung a hot bat in April, leaving the first month of spring 23 units in the green.
The latest cash-in came last week at Talladega, when Austin Cindric finally got the win he deserved, cashing a 16-1 outright ticket and validating his No. 1 projection in the IBT Betting Model in the process. It was a rare moment where a superspeedway race played out naturally, and regular readers hopefully took advantage.
Still, the most important race is the next one, so my eyes are firmly out front and away from the rearview as we head to Texas Motor Speedway. While Texas is certainly the trickiest of the high-speed, low-tire wear intermediate tracks, it’s still a welcome sight after six weeks spread across short tracks, high-wear/skill intermediates and superspeedways.
Here are my best bets for the 2025 Würth 400 and full card for a weekend of racing in Fort Worth, Texas.
2025 Würth 400: NASCAR at Texas Odds, Picks & Predictions
Outright: William Byron (+600 via DraftKings) | 2u
In a season where he has the series’ best 8.5 average finish and a 70% T10 rate (tied for first), William Byron has now set the record for the highest IBT Grade in the history of the projections. It’s no surprise why, as Byron is first in both Texas Next-Gen finish (3.7) and ifantasyrace.com‘s total speed rankings in that span.
Last year specifically, Byron was fifth in average running position (8.9), third in driver rating and finished third here. At Las Vegas, the only primary comp track we’ve been to so far this season, Byron was No. 1 in average running position (7.5) and No. 2 in driver rating, finishing fourth.
With one Next-Gen Texas win already on his resumé, I’m betting “Willy B” on the 6-1 outright at DraftKings to add another and hedging with the +105 T5 ticket from BetRivers.
Ross Chastain (-135 via ESPN BET) vs. Kyle Busch | 4.5u
Ross Chastain is ranked sixth in the projections. He could arguably be higher if Byron didn’t wreck him late in last year’s race, one in which Chastain had the fifth-best average running position (9.6). Therefore, take Chastain’s 12th-best Texas Next-Gen average finish (15.7) with a grain of salt and instead consider his fifth-best total speed ranking in that span.
“The Melon Man” sported the ninth-best average running position and finished fifth at Las Vegas this year. He also had the second-best average finish (7.8) and fourth-best total speed rankings at comp tracks last season.
Despite not having a ton of speed in his Trackhouse Racing equipment so far this season, Chastain has still finished T10 50% of the time. I expect him to unload one of his fastest cars of the year and be in contention for the win. That’s why seeing him matched up against Kyle Busch is so appealing.
“Rowdy” is ranked a meager 23rd in the projections, 17 spots lower than Chastain. A large part of that is due to his 20th-best Texas Next-Gen average finish (26.3). He also didn’t run well at Las Vegas, rocking a 26.8 average running position and finishing 33rd. While his 16.2 average finish at comp tracks last season leaves much to be desired, it’s not as bad as his recent form, where he’s 23rd in total speed rankings at conventional ovals this season.
Unless the No. 1 car gets caught up in trouble, he should have no problem besting Busch’s No. 8 Chevrolet Camaro.
Top Ford: Joey Logano (+475 via BetRivers) | .5u
It’s once again time to fade Ryan Blaney, who’s way overpriced in the Top Ford market. While the 2023 Cup Series champion is No. 1 in total speed rankings at conventional tracks this season and is always in contention to unload a rocket any week, he’s had trouble putting finishes together. He also has a 21.7 Texas Next-Gen average finish, pushing him down to 13th in the projections.
Meanwhile, his Team Penske counterpart, Joey Logano, has the sixth-best Texas Next-Gen average finish (11.3) and had an average running position of 9.1 at Las Vegas in March. He ranks sixth in the projections, and I’ve seen his Top Ford line for as low as +250 at Caesars. Therefore, I’m in for a half unit at +475 from our friends in Pittsburgh.
Top Ford: Ryan Preece (+2000 via DraftKings) | .5u
Ryan Preece has been one of the biggest surprises so far this season. If not for his failed post-race inspection that resulted in being disqualified last week at Talladega, Preece would already have five T10s and two T5s. One of those T5s was a third-place finish at Las Vegas, fueled by a 15.3 average running position and hitting on strategy.
While his 14th-best Texas Next-Gen average finish (17.5) and 18th-place ranking in the projections isn’t anything to write home about, his new Roush Fenway Keselowski (RFK) Racing team has had success here. Having that confidence in the equipment and a motivated driver like Preece behind the wheel has me seeing value in a 20-1 Top Ford line.
Other Cup Series Bets on My Card:
Ross Chastain Outright (+2800 via DraftKings) | .7u
William Byron Top 5 (+105 via BetRivers) | 1.5u
Andy's Frozen Custard 300 (Xfinity Series) Bets:
Sam Mayer Top 5 (+120 via DraftKings) | 2.5u
Ryan Sieg Top 10 (-140 via ESPN BET) | 2.5u
SpeedyCash.com 250 (Truck Series) Bets:
Corey Heim Outright (+165 via DraftKings) | 2u
Miami Grand Prix (Formula 1) Bets:
Lewis Hamilton Top 6 Finish (-150 via FanDuel) | 2u
Seth Woolcock is a five-time FSWA-nominated writer and host at BettingPros/FantasyPros. He is also the founder and content director for In-Between Media. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, follow him on X/Twitter @Between_SethFF and check out his award-nominated NASCAR betting show, “The Backroad.”