2025 Valspar Championship Longshot Odds, Picks, & Predictions

The Florida swing wraps up with the Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead Course in Palm Harbor, Florida on Thursday morning. It’s been a great event for golfers with longshot odds in the outright winner market in recent years.

Peter Malnati won his second career PGA Tour event here in 2024, ending a nine-year drought. Taylor Moore won for the first and only time here in 2023, snapping Sam Burns’ two-year win streak at Valspar in 2021 and 2022.

I have yet to hit on a longshot golfer this season, despite numerous events that have seen golfers with long odds triumph and run the table for an outright win in 2025. That could change this week with my latest prospects to tail below. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more free bets and weekly PGA Tour analysis.

 

2025 Valspar Championship: Best Longshot Bets

These plays are .25u and .10u, or 0.25% and 0.10% of your betting bankroll. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Lucas Glover (+4500)

I’ll be honest, 45-1 odds in the outright winner market is borderline longshot at best. However, in a vacuum, +4500 odds is fantastic value to hit on when placing a sports betting wager. I’m getting desperate for a winner at a price this lucrative and Lucas Glover fits the bill.

The 45-year-old just carded a T3 finish at TPC Sawgrass. He ranks 25th in total strokes gained, including 38th on approach, 50th off-the-tee, and fourth in driving accuracy. Glover is sixth in hole proximity, 18th in putting average, and 43rd in birdie average (4.3 per round) in 2025.

At 45-1, let’s back Glover for a quarter unit (0.25) to stay hot and climb the leaderboard, contending for his first outright win this season at the Copperhead Course.

Jordan Spieth (+6000)

Jordan Spieth is far removed from his 2015 win at Valspar but he has been in better form lately, making me like his 60-1 odds in the outright winner market. Spieth is a volatile player but among the best around the greens and scrambling, always positioning himself for success if he winds up with an errant lie off-the-tee or on approach.

Ranked 39th SG: Off-the-Tee, 68th in GIR percentage, and 37th on par 4s this season, there’s some things to like about Spieth’s game heading into Valspar. He did flounder at TPC Sawgrass last week, making the cut but winding up 59th with a final round 78. It’s why we’re landing such a big price on his outright winner odds at 60-1.

We’ve seen Spieth card two top-ten finishes, including in Florida at the Cognizant Classic in early March. He’ll need to improve his irons and putting, however, I can see Spieth getting hot and climbing the leaderboard on Friday and Saturday.

Let’s sprinkle a 0.10 unit wager on Spieth to record his first outright win since the 2022 RBC Heritage at the Valspar Championship this week.

Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for BettingPros and FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.