2025 PGA Championship Odds, Picks & Predictions: Best Head-to-Head Bets (Round 1)
Quail Hollow Club hosts the 2025 PGA Championship this week in Charlotte, North Carolina. It’s the second major of the season and the Wanamaker Trophy is at stake, along with a $25 million purse.
Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler and Bryson DeChambeau are the top three betting favorites in the outright winner market this week. DraftKings Sportsbook currently has Scheffler valued as a slight favorite at +425 odds, followed by McIlroy at +500 and DeChambeau at +900.
McIlroy has won four times at Quail Hollow Club throughout his illustrious PGA Tour career. He’s got three wins in 2025, including his breakthrough win at The Masters, finally completing the elusive major Grand Slam. Scheffler is well rested after throttling the field in Dallas, winning the CJ CUP Byron Nelson by eight strokes at 31-under-par. DeChambeau took a brief lead at The Masters on Sunday before his inability to hit greens in regulation caught up, sending him down the leaderboard.
I’ve got three PGA Championship best bets to tail in a few different head-to-head betting markets for Round 1 on Thursday. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more free bets and weekly PGA Tour analysis.
2025 PGA Championship: Best Bets
These plays are 1 unit, or 1% of your betting bankroll. Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
John Parry v Justin Hicks v Ryan Fox – Round 1 (Round 3-Balls)
This is my first time betting on Ryan Fox in 2025. The New Zealand native is known for his powerful driver, which is why I’m picking Fox to win his Round 1 3-ball matchup against Justin Hicks and John Parry on Thursday.
Fox just won the Myrtle Beach Classic, which is his lone top 10 finish this season. Ranked 49th in driving distance, 28th proximity, and 11th on approach shots from 200+ yards. Also sits 20th in putting average and 35th in birdie average.
Parry hasn’t played on the PGA Tour in 2025, while Hicks has missed the cut in both events he’s entered. This feels like a sweat-free wager, so let’s bet a unit on Fox to win his Round 1 3-ball matchup at -125 odds.
Pick: Ryan Fox (-125)
Joaquin Niemann vs. Justin Thomas – 18 Hole Matchup – Round 1
Joaquin Niemann’s hype has grown in 2025. However, that doesn’t change the fact that the Chilean has never logged a T20 finish at a major. Justin Thomas, however, has plenty of winning pedigree and is back playing in peak form.
Thomas ended a three-year win drought with an emphatic 28-foot birdie putt in a playoff at the RBC Heritage. He followed that up with a T2 at the Truist Championship on Sunday.
Ranked third in total strokes gained, including fifth SG: Approach, 20th SG: Putting and fifth in scoring average, Thomas is undoubtedly the better golfer to back in this matchup.
Thomas is averaging 69.5 in Round 1 this season, ranked 39th on the PGA Tour. He won the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow Club in 2017 and is red-hot right now, so at -130 odds, I’m going to bet another unit on J.T. to beat Niemann with a lower score on Thursday.
Pick: Justin Thomas (-130)
Min Woo Lee vs. Tony Finau – Matchup (3-Way) – Round 1
Min Woo Lee is quickly becoming a popular golfer to back in a variety of betting markets at Quail Hollow Club this week. The Aussie won the Houston Open in late March but he’s been in a slump since that breakthrough win on the PGA Tour, carding subsequent finishes of 49-T61-T51.
Tony Finau has been struggling to produce on the PGA Tour in 2025. He’s got one top 10 finish and ranks 125th in SG: Approach and 120th in proximity. Also outside the top 100 in scrambling, sand save percentage and putting average.
Lee ranks ninth SG: Around-the-Green and 11th SG: Putting. He’s also fourth in driving distance, which is why Lee is trending up ahead of Round 1 at the PGA Championship.
Lee averages 70.4 in Round 1 this season, ranked 104th on the PGA Tour. Finau is averaging 70.83, 131st on the PGA Tour. It may get a bit sweaty but ultimately, Lee should come through with a lower score than Finau on Thursday.
One final unit is warranted on Lee to beat Finau in this Round 1 3-Way matchup at even odds.
Pick: Min Woo Lee (+100)