2025 NCAA Tournament Bracketology Predictions: 8.0 (College Basketball)

We are officially done with regular-season college basketball and have reached the postseason. Each conference tournament is underway or auto-bids have already been given out. Even just typing out "auto-bids" is giving me goosebumps. It really is March. If you're just joining us, welcome. You may have missed a lot, but don't worry. I'll be here to catch you up.

This article provides a holistic view of the Men’s NCAA College Basketball landscape and identifies some value before the market moves. With March Madness closing in, I'll update this article a couple more times before we get to brackets and provide my final bracket prediction on Sunday morning. There's a lot to get into, so let's jump right into takeaways before the final games leading into postseason play. 

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2025 NCAA Men’s Tournament Bracketology Predictions

The State of Auto-Bids

As of now, seven different teams have punched their ticket into the tournament: Drake (Missouri Valley), High Point (Big South), Lipscomb (Atlantic Sun), Troy (Sun Belt), Wofford (Southern), Omaha (Summit) and SIU-Edwardsville (Ohio Valley). I put them in that specific order as I view that order as upset/cinderella potentials. No team has more wins in college basketball than the Drake Bulldogs (30-3) in a transition year under first-year head coach Ben McCollum. It's quite the story.

Drake could end up as a No. 11 seed with wins over Vanderbilt, Miami (FL) and Kansas State, depending on how the conference tournaments end up. High Point has the second-most wins (29-5). While they were expected to win the Big South from the start, they exceeded expectations. Their offense behind Kezza Giffa and Kimani Hamilton is delightful to watch and they have a lot of depth and experience on their team.

Bobby Pettiford is High Point’s fourth-leading scorer and was a freshman on the 2022 championship Kansas team. They're in this position because their bench went on a second-half run to beat Winthrop in the Big South championship behind Pettiford's 17 bench points. Otherwise, Omaha could be a tough out with their offense but will be held back a bit by their sub-250-ranked defense. Either way, these teams all have ample time to rest up and do some film research on potential matchups. 

The State of At-Larges

Many teams have locked up their bid into the tournament outside of the auto-bids. Let's go conference by conference to see where the teams currently sit. 

ACC

• Locks: Duke, Clemson, Louisville
• Bubble: UNC

Big Ten

• Locks: Michigan State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Maryland, Michigan, Oregon, UCLA, Illinois
• Bubble: Indiana, Ohio State, Nebraska

Big East

• Locks: St. John's, Marquette, UConn, Creighton
• Bubble: Xavier

Big 12

• Locks: Houston, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Arizona, BYU, Kansas
• Should Be In: West Virginia, Baylor
• Bubble: None

Mountain West

• Locks: New Mexico
• Should Be In: Utah State
• Bubble: San Diego State, Boise State

SEC

• Locks: Auburn, Florida, Alabama, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Missouri, Ole Miss, Mississippi State
• Should Be In: Vanderbilt, Georgi
• Bubble: Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas

All Other Conferences

• Locks: St. Mary's, Gonzaga
• Bubble: VCU, UC San Diego, UC Irvine

The bubble has tightened the closer we are to Selection Sunday. It seems like a lot depends on how the Big Ten tournament shapes out with Indiana, Ohio State and Nebraska all squarely on the bubble. Nebraska didn't make the Big 10 tournament, so I'd be shocked if they made it in with their current resume. But you never know.

Xavier is riding a seven-game winning streak, so if the committee values recent play at all, the Musketeers should be in. However, they have a tough matchup against Marquette to open the Big East tournament. I'm close to locking in West Virginia, Baylor and other projected No. 10 seeds, but  I can't lock them in until we see any potential bid stealers.

The Bracket & Seeding

This is the fourth bracket to feature tenable matchups. What joy. I don't know about y'all, but I love the hypotheticals brackets provide us. With less than a week of play left, there is still time for seeding to change, but a lot more teams lock up their bids each day.

Some big current winners of the week include Louisville, UC San Diego, Colorado State and Xavier. The SEC is clearly the best conference, but the Big Ten has become quite interesting with seeding. Regardless, here's what I imagine the bracket to look like if March Madness started today. 

The Seeding

No. 1 Seeds

• Auburn
• Duke
• Houston
• Alabama

No. 2 Seeds

• Florida
• Tennessee 
• St. John's
• Michigan State

No. 3 Seeds

• Wisconsin
• Kentucky
• Iowa State
• Texas Tech

No. 4 Seeds

• Maryland
• Texas A&M
• Arizona 
• Purdue

No. 5 Seeds

• Missouri
• Clemson
• Michigan
• Louisville 

No. 6 Seeds

• Oregon
• St. Mary's
• BYU
• Marquette 

No. 7 Seeds

• UCLA
• Mississippi State
• Kansas
• Ole Miss

No. 8 Seeds

• Illinois
• Memphis
• Creighton
• UConn

No. 9 Seeds

• Gonzaga
• Vanderbilt
• New Mexico
• Utah State

No. 10 Seeds

• West Virginia
• Baylor
• San Diego State
• Georgia

No. 11 Seeds

• Arkansas
• VCU
• Xavier*
• Indiana*
• Oklahoma*
• Ohio State*

No. 12 Seeds

• Drake
• UC San Diego
• McNeese State
• Liberty

No. 13 Seeds

• Yale
• High Point
• Troy
• Lipscomb

No. 14 Seeds

• Northern Colorado
• Akron
• Utah Valley
• UNC Wilmington

No. 15 Seeds

• Wofford
• Robert Morris
• Central Connecticut State
• Omaha

No. 16 Seeds

• Bryant
• Norfolk State
• SIU-Edwardsville*
• Southern*
• American*
• Quinnipiac*

*Play-in games

First Four Out

• Boise State
• Nebraska
• Texas
• UNC

Next Four Out

• UC Irvine
• Wake Forest
• Cincinnati
• Villanova

The Bracket

The biggest problem I face right now is figuring out the final No. 1 seed. I gave it to Alabama over Florida or Tennessee because I expect the strength of schedule to weigh out. But Alabama and Florida line up with each other in the SEC tournament, and Tennessee should get the chance to upset Auburn and prove why they should be the final No. 1 seed, so that is still up in the air.

Otherwise, you may see not much has changed in my bracket. This time of year, a lot of bracketologists get trigger-happy, overweighing these March games. But the committee looks at the entire season and sometimes it feels like brackets were locked up days in advance. 

South Region

• 1 Auburn vs. 16 American/Quinnipiac
• 8 Illinois vs. 9 Gonzaga
• 5 Missouri vs. 12 Drake
• 4 Purdue vs. 13 Lipscomb
• 6 Marquette vs. 11 Oklahoma/Ohio State
• 3 Texas Tech vs. 14 UNC Wilmington
• 7 UCLA vs. 10 Vanderbilt
• 2 St. John's vs. 15 Central Connecticut State

West Region

• 1 Alabama vs. 16 SIU-Edwardsville/Southern
• 8 Utah State vs. 9 Baylor
• 5 Clemson vs. 12 Liberty
• 4 Arizona vs. 13 Troy
• 6 St. Mary's vs. 11 Arkansas
• 3 Iowa State vs. 14 Utah Valley
• 7 Mississippi State vs. 10 San Diego State
• 2 Michigan State vs. 15 Robert Morris

East Region

• 1 Duke vs. 16 Norfolk State
• 8 Memphis vs. 9 Creighton
• 5 Michigan vs. 12 UC San Diego
• 4 Texas A&M vs. 13 High Point
• 6 Kansas vs. 11 VCU
• 3 Kentucky vs. 14 Akron
• 7 Oregon vs. 10 Georgia
• 2 Tennessee vs. 15 Wofford

Midwest Region

• 1 Houston vs. 16. Bryant
• 8 UConn vs. 9. New Mexico
• 5 Louisville vs. 12. McNeese State
• 4 Maryland vs. 13. Yale
• 6 BYU vs. 11. Indiana/Xavier
• 3 Wisconsin vs. 14. Northern Colorado 
• 7 Ole Miss vs. 10. West Virginia
• 2 Florida vs. 15. Omaha

Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.