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2025 Kentucky Derby: Sandman Odds, Picks & Predictions

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The Kentucky Derby is one of the most prestigious and highly anticipated events in the world of horse racing. Held annually on the first Saturday in May, the Kentucky Derby attracts horse racing enthusiasts from all over the world. The Derby is a 1 1/4 mile race for three-year-old thoroughbreds and is often referred to as “the most exciting two minutes in sports.” Let's take a look at the odds for one of the horses competing in the 150th Run for the Roses: Sandman.

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2025 Kentucky Derby Profile & Predictions: Sandman

  • Name: Sandman
  • Post Position: 17
  • Trainer: Mark Casse
  • Jockey: Jose Ortiz
  • Owners: D.J. Stable, St. Elias Stable, West Point Thoroughbreds, CJ Stables
  • Breeder: Lothenbach Stables (Kentucky)
  • Sire: Tapit
  • Dam: Distorted Music (by Distorted Humor)
  • Color: Gray or roan
  • Foaled: February 27, 2022
  • Career Record: 8 starts: 3 wins, 1 second, 2 thirds
  • Earnings: $1,254,595
  • Top Beyer Speed Figure: 99 (2025 Arkansas Derby)
  • Top Equibase Speed Figure: 104
  • Derby Qualifying Points: 129 (Ranked 2nd)
  • Odds: 6-1​

Enter Sandman. I know he's drew the dreaded Post 17 that is 0-for-44 and the only post to never produce a winner. What if I told you that eight of the last 14 Kentucky Derby champions came from Post 13 or wider. That recent trend could signal the Post 17 curse could soon be lifted.

Why not this year with the galloping ghost himself, Sandman. Roans have only won eight of 150 Derbies (5.3%) but half of those wins have come since 1988. This means despite roans accounting just 5.3% of the all-time Derby champs, since 1988 that they have accounted for over 11% after accounting for just 3.5% of the first 114 winners. People love to bet roans because they are aesthetically pleasing and, at least statistically, the field is rising to meet public demand, relatively speaking.

All of this to say, 17 can't still winless forever and wider has been better lately. This is an indication outside Rockies are favoring the cleaner start on the outside to more easily conserve energy and overcome the benefit of a shorter trip inside.

Add those elements to the increase in roan victories and you have recipe for the possibility of Derby history.

– Luke Monaldo

Bet: Win / Use in Exotics

Post Horse Trainer Name Jockey Name Odds
1 Citizen Bull Bob Baffert Martin Garcia 20-1
2 Neoequos Saffie Joseph Jr. Flavien Prat 30-1
3 Final Gambit Brad H. Cox Luan Machado 30-1
4 Rodriguez Bob Baffert Mike E. Smith 12-1
5 American Promise D. Wayne Lukas Nik Juarez 30-1
6 Admire Daytona Yukihiro Kato Christophe Lemaire 30-1
7 Luxor Cafe Noriyuki Hori João Moreira 15-1
8 Journalism Michael W. McCarthy Umberto Rispoli 3-1
9 Burnham Square Ian R. Wilkes Brian Hernandez Jr. 12-1
10 Grande Todd A. Pletcher John R. Velazquez 20-1
11 Flying Mohawk Whit Beckman Joe Ramos 30-1
12 East Avenue Brendan P. Walsh Manny Franco 20-1
13 Publisher Steven M. Asmussen Irad Ortiz Jr. 20-1
14 Tiztastic Steven M. Asmussen Joel Rosario 20-1
15 Render Judgement Kenneth G. McPeek Julien Leparoux 30-1
16 Coal Battle Lonnie Briley Juan Vargas 30-1
17 Sandman Mark E. Casse José Ortiz 6-1
18 Sovereignty William I. Mott Junior Alvarado 5-1
19 Chunk of Gold Ethan West Jareth Loveberry 30-1
20 Owen Almighty Brian A. Lynch Javier Castellano 30-1
21 (AE) Baeza John Shirreffs Flavien Prat 12-1

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