2025 AdventHealth 400: NASCAR at Kansas Odds, Picks & Predictions
Being a successful motorports bettor requires instincts similar to those of a hunter. It’s about waiting for the right shot, knowing when to pull the trigger, and when to be patient. Confident in projections and searching for opening line value, I empty the majority of the clip pre-practice and qualifying most weeks.
Others, though - like this week at Kansas Speedway - I’ve let a +425 Kyle Larson line walk right on by. While I’m fairly confident the driver of the Hendrick Motorsports (HMS) No. 5 Chevrolet Camaro will find victory lane in the heartland this weekend, I’m holding out for a better number post-flop. There’s always the chance he unloads a rocket and we never get it. However, just over 4-1 is about as short as I’m willing to lay on a Cup Series outright.
With that in mind, I have a limited number of plays coming into the weekend. It’s all about quality over quantity with my best bets for the 2025 AdventHealth 500 and full card for a weekend of NASCAR racing in the plains!
2025 AdventHealth 400: NASCAR at Kansas Odds, Picks & Predictions
Top 10: Alex Bowman (+100 via DraftKings) | 4.8u
In a week when I wasn’t able to sniff out a lot of value, Alex Bowman’s odds stood out more than any other driver. Given that he is third in the IBT Betting Model and just one of four drivers with an IBT Grade over 80%, it was stunning to see him at even money on the T10 line and 25-1 on the outright to begin the week. This T10 number has since been bet down to -140 at DraftKings but is still available at some other shops at the original price.
Bowman is tied for second in Kansas Next-Gen average finish (7.2) with Larson and joins Denny Hamlin as the only driver never to finish outside the top 10 here in that span. Last year specifically, “The Showman” had an average running position of 12.7 and finished seventh. He returned in the fall to have the fourth-best average running position (7.4) and finish sixth.
The Arizona Native had the fifth-best average finish in races at intermediate tracks last season (13.2). He’s seemingly only progressed in 2025, being third in Ifantasyrace.com’s total speed rankings last week at Texas, placing seventh at Las Vegas and having the top average running position (3.7), finishing runner-up at Homestead.
If the No. 48 car finishes sees the checkered flag, all signs indicate it’ll be from inside the top 10.
Top 10: Zane Smith (+700 via DraftKings) | .5u
If you know anything about Zane Smith, it’s that he loves Kansas. The Front Row Motorsports (FRM) driver has eight T10s, five T5s and one win in nine Truck Series starts here. We also saw it translate to the Cup Series last fall, where he had a 14.5 average running position (13th-best) and finished 10th.
While he hasn’t broken through for a T10 on an intermediate yet this season, he finished right outside in P11 at Homestead, another extremely high-tire wear track. With this T10 line going off for as low as 4-1 at other books, I’m content speculating at 7-1 at DraftKings and in the Top Ford market at BetRivers for absolute gainer 60-1 odds.
Truck: Corey Heim (-139 via BetRivers) vs. William Byron | 4u
If you’re putting together a card for Saturday’s SpeedCash.com 250, Corey Heim has to be on it. The 14-time Truck Series winner and title favorite has won at two of three comp tracks this season, leading 96 laps at Texas last week and 42 at Las Vegas in March. He also would’ve beaten Kyle Larson after leading 78 laps at Homestead, but his truck continued to shut off late, causing him to finish P3.
Heim swept both Truck Series races at Kansas last year, and did so in dominant fashion. The 22-year-old had a wicked 2.1 average running position, led 79% of laps and spent 99.3% of laps inside the top 15 in the spring. Despite starting 33rd in the fall, Heim still had a 4.1 average running position, led 64 laps and spent 96.3% of laps inside the top 15 on his way to victory lane.
The TRICON Garage driver should be bet not only on the +160 outright this weekend, but also in the -139 H2H matchup offered against Cup Series veteran William Byron from our friends in Pittsburgh. Fox Sports’ Bob Pockrass reported that Larson initially thought he would be driving the Spire Motorsports No. 07 truck this weekend in relief of the injured Connor Zilisch. However, Byron was the driver noted on the entry list.
That’s good news for bettors, as Byron has an 8.0 average finish in the last four Truck Series races over the past three seasons. He started 13th and finished 14th while driving this same truck at Martinsville - one of his best tracks - early this season. I get that Byron is one of the top drivers in all of NASCAR, but he’s coming into someone else’s playground this weekend, one that runs on “Heim Time.”
Other Cup Series Bets on My Card:
Alex Bowman Outright (+2800 via DraftKings) | .8u
Zane Smith Top Ford (+6000 via BetRivers) | .15u
Others Truck Series Bets on My Card:
Corey Heim Outright (+160 via ESPN BET) | 2u
Seth Woolcock is a five-time FSWA-nominated writer and host at BettingPros/FantasyPros. He is also the founder and content director for In-Between Media. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, follow him on X/Twitter @Between_SethFF and check out his award-nominated NASCAR betting show, “The Backroad.”